Roulette Strategies

The Grand Martingale

One notable variation to the Martingale is the Grand Martingale. The only thing "grand" about this system is the fashion in which you will lose your money. This more aggressive cousin has you double your last bet and add one more unit. If our betting unit is $5, then the progression would look like this:

1) $5 on red. You lose [20/38]^1, (52.63% of the time) and win 47.37% of the time.
2) $10 +$5 on red. You lose [20/38]^2, or 27.70% and win 72.30% of the time.
3) $30 +$5 on red. You lose [20/38]^3, (14.58% of the time) and win 85.42%.
4) $70 +$5 on red. Will have you lose [20/38]^4, (7.67%) and win 92.33% of the time.
5) $150 +$5 on red. You now lose [20/38]^5, or 4.04% and win 95.96% of the time.

The "grand" total that you are prepared to lose on just one progression with this system is [$5 + $15 + $35 + $75 + $155] = $285. Let's calculate our average net loss for the same 32 cycles of the progression:

1) [18/38] or 47.37% of the time, in 32 attempts, we will win $5: (.4737) x 32 x $5 = +$75.79
2) [(20/38) x 18/38] or 24.93% of our 32 cycles, we will win $10: (.2493) x 32 x $10 = +$79.78
3) [(20/38)^2 x 18/38], 13.12% of our 32 tries, we will win $15: (.1312) x 32 x $15 = +$62.98
4) [(20/38)^3 x 18/38], 6.91% of our 32 attempts will win us $20: (.0691) x 32 x $20 = +$44.22
5) [(20/38)^4 x 18/38], 3.63% of our 32 cycles will win $25: (.0363) x 32 x $25 = +$29.04
That leaves (20/38)^5 or 4.04% of the time for losing $285: (.0404)x32x$285 = -$368.45

Net Loss: <$76.64>

So, this 5-bet progression loses $76.64 in "Grand" style versus the more modest $46.84 for the plain Martingale. The Grand loses 63.6% more money on a 5-bet progression!! This system is deadly, folks. Stay clear!

The Probability of a Run

Let's say that the casino that you frequent most has 6 roulette tables. On each of these tables you'll find 3 sets of even-money wagers: red vs. black, odd vs. even and high vs. low. That presents 18 possible runs at any given time. The chances of any one of these groups having a losing run of, say, 6 in a row is [20/38]^6, or 0.02126. That's about 1 chance in 47. Now factor in 3 such sets at each table times 6 tables and your chances of encountering such a run are 18/47. That works out to be 38+% of the time! A run of 6 blacks, for example, isn't as rare as you might think! How about a run of 8, in a casino with 12 roulette tables? [20/38]^8, or 0.00589 which is multiplied by 36. That's 0.21197 or better than 21% chance of finding a run of 8. These events will happen, and when they do, think back and remember what you read here. Imagine if you had been doubling up against one of these "monsters" from the get-go!!

In Conclusion

Obviously, the less we play, the less we lose. Some methods are worse than others. My recommendations, if you must play a Martingale-type system, are as follows:

1) Wait for a particular group to be absent for 6 to 8 spins before running a progression. If there are 4 or less wheels open, then wait for a string of 6 losses. If there are 5 to 10 open wheels, then 7 will suffice. Anything over 10 will require a run of 8. Technically, this won't increase your chances of winning, but it will keep you off of the tables more (minimizing losses).

2) When you do encounter this situation, run a progression 2 or 3 bets at the most on this group. If you lose the progression, you may quit or begin a new cycle. If you lose three progressions of 2 bets, or two progressions of 3 bets, then abandon that group and search for another one that qualifies.

3) Do not use the Grand Martingale progression at any time.

4) Determine how many units you will reasonably be satisfied with winning. If you reach your goal, consider yourself lucky and cash in. By the same token, select a stop-loss point and stick with it. At least take a walk and clear your head.

5) Don't bet with your emotions! If you lose a few units… fine. Never go chasing a falling piano!